We all know that elections are managed and this is entirely a different exercise, requiring a different expertese. If anyone of us feel that elections are faught with agendas, past work and future visions- he is living in fools paradise.
Yes- there are waves, like Sympathy wave is a strong example. Rajeev Gandhi vis-a-vis Congress came back to power after death of Indira Gandhi- is perfect example of sympathy wave.
But what is going to happen in 2014 ? Many elites are spendning sleepless nights over this question. And once again, area of concern is domestic and international situation and their impact on Indian politics. While- I try to explore this- I would like our readers to note that I suspect heavy horse trading is going to happen in 2014- and once again independant, small regional parties are going to have real steak !
Americans are struggling with their issues in Afghanistan. With old buddy Pakistan not singing same song- americans and in big trouble. They have taken out 40K soldiers and remaining 60K have to leave Afghan soil in 2014. Major problem is machinery, vehicles and other stuf which can not be airlifted- as this will cost too much. America needed land route – and someone to handle this country after their exit. They made their main gameplan with PAK in sight- they provided billions to PAK but seems PAK twisted their arm so well that now they are crying with pain. In such scene- India’s role in Afghanistan came under double pressure as sabotage from Afghans and Pakistan both agencies manages well to nip India in croner.
Obama knows – Congress is buddy. Obama knows if BJP comes in power- they will give him tough times. So, CIA and foreighn department is very much interested to see Congress back in power. So and so is love for America , Manmohan Singh is running to USA- this month talking nuclear fuel and much more [ ? ] which shows there is more into the story which is being told. CIA and Foreighn department have their own methodoligies to work in such domains and we all know violence is their prefered tool. Thus, there are chances that India in 2014 may go in turmoils like short/long conflicts, unrest, political killings.
China, on the other hand is keeping tight grip on the region. Its presence in Bay of bengal and Indian Ocean is so mighty that India is insecure about it’s breathing on neck. China is right now present in Maldieves, POK, Islands near Sri Lanka and keeping eye on Andaman Nikobar. China is happy with Congress regime as they played cool to situations arising from infilitration in border regions. China doesn’t like dealing with likes of Modi/BJP because they have a definite roadmap which doesnt go well with Chinese plans. And what it fears most is loosing business with India- which rises to new heights in Congress regime.
Pakistan, Oh Boy ! We all know Congress holds special place in heart and soul for Pakistan. Congress is so much in love with them that sometimes it feels like they have love pangs for them. The way Congress handles trivial issues like beheadings, inflitrations, and recent backlash from Nawaz about Kashmir ..in it’s own way which Pakistan do not beleive BJP /MODI will allow to happen. Pakistan loves congress because they are confortable with them. Some international politics observers even feel that Indian stance for Pakistan comes dictated from Obama personaly.
Now- in this scene- BJP has to try very hard to keep it’s house intact. Polaraization inside BJP will be major setback to organization. Where BJP needs lot of maturity and party lines clear, which I doubt they have or wanted to..coming year is not as easy as few BJP/MODI supporters think. Specially independant and small parties will also make injuries to both Congress and BJP.
I am of the view- that Congress which gave highest scams, shameless politics will be doing high bidding in horse trading. BJP seems to have less money- we have yet to see which business house or international force stands with them….So far, as of now- Congress has better chances to “manage” 2014 elections unless. I personaly see no difference between both- although MODI led BJP is expected to behave much in order as compared to great economist led Congress !