PAKISTAN: America rules pakistan via proxy. Zardari and others did well and Musharraf got carried away by facebook discussion and rhetoric.
Pakistan seems to have defeated India vis-a vis Afghanistan when it blocks USA from it’s role and extended hands to Afghans. So is the promise and shake hand that in 2014- Afghanistan is going to be another muslim nation.
America is trapped in Afghanistan – it had taken out 40K soldiers and another 60K are waiting. Billions of dollars of equipment is lying there which they can not lift by air. They need safe exit and safe exit is Pakistan-Karachi port.
Here comes politics of opportunities – denial of PAK to help USA had risen the stakes. America is desperate to end this saga within budget and with face saving exit. With Pakistan out of friends list- America is trapped. This war of a decade – they had already lost – and this cost them in trillions of dollars- more than Vietnam cost them. 2014 is going to be very sensitive for Asia – as roles will be defined , re defined and game will be played on hot surface.
INDIA: Much of India game is America specific as PAK played it’s smart moves. They milked USA in name of support and their support was heavily charged too. USA was billed heavily and lot of Gen. and ministers made good money. INDIA- seems to be lured and was in loop for role in Baluchistan. In 2011-12…INDIA dominates the scene, importance there and at one time pushed PAK out from Baluchistan.
I do not know exactly – what happened but something happened that INDIA was pushed to the corner. PAK gained value and twisted US arms to extract last installment of millions before they raise their hands.
USA insisted that INDIA and PAK should be on good terms so that they dont start any new conflict – it was not in their favour as Afghanistan is already burning. Catch 22 – where USA dont want INDIA to be big boss – it himself can not play that tole and PAK is a dangerous boss- they have to pay heavily for it.
Manmohan Singh’s love pangs for pakistan can be understood. India under no condition wants conflict with PAK- this is what PAK needs to provide a alibi to US…that it is forced to take INDIA seriously on borders.
Otherwise, how come Nawaz …started singing a different SA RE GA MA ?
CONCLUSION: Wrong policies and in lust to play some role in Afghanistan- India has to see that it is tough to handle them in their own ground. Tomorrow- when USA will leave – and with their last take off…..India has neither capability nor ability to handle that ground without paying cost which may not be acceptable back home.
This is time when we relook at the stakes …..and specially with home issues burning and slipping economy…Congress has lot to do in it’s own drawing room !